Severe Threat Wednesday
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is an Enhanced Risk area across southern MN on Wednesday, which means there is a more widespread risk of strong to severe storms with large hail, damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes during the afternoon and evening hours.
Simulated Radar From AM Tuesday to PM Wednesday
Here is the simulated radar from AM Tuesday to midday Wednesday, which shows more widespread showers and storms moving through the region during the day Wednesday. The best chance of severe storms will develop south of the Twin Cities during the 2nd half of the day with large hail, damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes. This will also be a fairly decent rain maker with some 1" to 2" rainfall tallies possible across the southern half of the state.
Rainfall Potential Through Wednesday
According to NOAA's NDFD data, there is a potential of heavy rainfall across the southern half of the state with some 1" to 2" tallies or more. Some of the heaviest rains look to fall from near the Twin Cities into western Wisconsin.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
We need rain! Below is the precipitation departure from average since January 1st, which shows widespread several inch deficits across much of the region. Some locations are dealing with their top 20 driest starts to any year on record.
Minnesota Drought Update
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 40% of the state is now considered to be in a severe drought, which has increased from 11% last week. Also, nearly 93% of the state is included in a moderate drought (including the Twin Cities), which has increased from 82% last week. Last year at this time, only 5% of the state was in a severe drought and 25% was in a moderate drought.
Wednesday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday shows unsettled weather moving through the region with scattered showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Wednesday will be a little cooler due to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and storms. With that being said, temps for much of the day will be in the 70s with ESE winds around 10-15mph.
Regional Weather Outlook for Wednesday
The weather outlook across the region on Wednesday shows unsettled weather moving through much of the region. Cloudier skies with scattered showers and storms will keep temps in the 70s and lower 80s, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average for mid July.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows temps warming to below average levels on Wednesday & Thursday. The extended forecasts suggest that temps could warm to well above average levels again by the weekend and into next week. The best chance of showers and storms will be in place through midweek before we dry out for extended period.
Weather Outlook Through Friday
Here's the extended weather outlook through the end of the week, which shows widespread showers and storms moving through the Midwest. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with areas of locally heavy rains and localized flooding.
Regional Rainfall Potential Through 7PM Thursday
Here's the rainfall potential through 7PM Thursday across the Midwest, which shows areas of heavier rainfall across parts of the region, including the Twin Cities.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing across much of the western US and across the northern tier of the nation. Meanwhile, areas in the Southern and Southeastern US will be below average.
A Stormy Wednesday With More 90s Next Week
By Paul Douglas
On July 14, 1936 the high temperature in the Twin Cities reached an all-time record: 108degrees in the shade. According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service, 71 Minnesotans died due to the extreme heat.
Unlike the current global warming trend, crazy extremes in the 1930s were regional, focused over the central US. And dew points were consistently lower; the air was drier - and full of dust much of that decade due to drought and farming practices that offered scant protection for rich topsoil.
NOAA's GFS model shows 90s all next week as more pulses of western heat arrive via Airmail.
When in a drought don't forecast rain, but that's precisely what I'm doing: heavy showers and T-storms drop 1-3 inches of rain on lawns and fields today; the best chance of severe storms (hail and damaging winds) later today from the southern MSP suburbs to the Iowa border. There's a risk of both storm damage and flash floods.
The weekend looks sunny and I could see mid to upper 90s by the end of next week. Oh boy.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Heavy rain, severe storms. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 80.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: T-Storms End Overnight. Winds: SE 5-10. Low: 63.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, drying out. Winds: N 8-13. High: 81.
FRIDAY: Warm sunshine. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 64. High: 84.
SATURDAY: Perfect lake day. Sunny skies. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 66. High: 86.
SUNDAY: Blue sky, no complaints. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 67. High: 88.
MONDAY: Sunny, getting hotter. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 70 High: 90.
TUESDAY: Hot sunshine. Dog Days are here. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 72 High: 93.
This Day in Weather History
July 14th
2003: At least eleven tornadoes hit Minnesota. Baseball-sized hail is reported at Indus in Koochiching County.
1936: The all-time record high is reported in the Twin Cities, with 108 degrees at the downtown Minneapolis office. 71 people would die in the Twin Cities on this day due to the extreme heat.
1916: Heavy downpours at New Ulm dump over seven inches of rain in seven hours.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 14th
Average High: 84F (Record: 108F set in 1936)
Average Low: 65F (Record: 50F set in 1930)
Record Rainfall: 3.17" set in 1915
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 14th
Sunrise: 5:40am
Sunset: 8:57pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 17 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 34 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~20 Minutes
Moon Phase for July 14th at Midnight
2.1 Before First Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
Venus and Mars orbit the sun on either side of Earth. But, in the July evening sky, Venus outshines Mars by about 200 times. So you might look west after sunset now … and overlook Mars at first. Watch for Mars. It's in conjunction with Venus this month. The exact time of the conjunction is July 13, 2021, at about 7 UTC. At that time, Venus will pass 1/2 degree north of Mars on our sky's dome, or about one moon-diameter. Do you have binoculars? Any ordinary binoculars will show Venus and Mars in the same field of view at their closest. Depending on where you live worldwide, Venus and Mars will be closest together in the evening sky on July 12 or July 13.
National High Temps Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows more unsettled weather developing across the central part of the country. Monsoon thunderstorms will also develop in the Desert Southwest, where rain is much needed.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through midweek shows more showers and storms east of the Mississippi River Valley with another round of showers and storms moving into the Midwest. There will also be monsoon storms in the Desert Southwest through midweek.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across parts of the Central US. Areas of heavy rain will still be possible across parts of the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. There will also be areas of heavy rain in the Desert Southwest where monsoon storms will develop.
Climate Stories
"California's Air Monitor Finds Toxic Lead in Wildfire Smoke"
"The black smoke that blanketed Northern California as a result of 2018's Camp Fire contained extreme levels of lead and other toxic metals, according to a new study by the state's air regulator. As summertime wildfires hammer the drought-stricken Western U.S., the new findings raise alarms about the risk of previously unforeseen health impacts such as cancer and learning deficits. Some parts of California such as the city of Chico saw lead concentrations briefly spike to 50 times the average level, the study by the California Air Resources Board found. "This report makes it clear that wildfire smoke poses a real health threat not only to people living and working near these fires, but to anyone affected by the smoke as it travels across California and beyond," said Richard Corey, executive officer of the agency, in a press release."
"Heat wave roasts the West as wildfires explode in size"
- The latest in a series of severe heat waves to affect the West continues Monday, although conditions are not expected to be quite as extreme as they were during the weekend. The big picture: The heat, combined with a deepening drought and lightning strikes, has set more than 1 million acres of land in California, Oregon, Washington, and Canada ablaze, with smoke obscuring the skies thousands of miles away. By the numbers: Another in a series of strong high-pressure areas, colloquially known as "heat domes," has set up across the West. While not quite as strong as the event in late June and early July, it has still led to record-shattering temperatures. 107.7°F: Warmest daily low temperature on record for the U.S., set Sunday at Stovepipe Wells, California. 117°F: All-time high temperature record at Las Vegas McCarran International Airport, which was tied on Saturday, per a National Weather Service statement. 107°F: All-time high temperature record set July 9 at Grand Junction, Colorado, where records date back to 1893. 150,812 acres: Size of the Bootleg Fire in Oregon as of Sunday, after the fire doubled in size on three consecutive days. The fire was forecast to see "extreme" rates of growth as temperatures climbed on Sunday afternoon. 4,000 acres: Size of the fast-growing River Fire in Mariposa and Madera Counties in California, forcing evacuations late Sunday. Threat level: On Sunday, Canada's Interagency Forest Fire Center elevated its readiness level to 5 — the top of the scale, noting "active agencies may take emergency measures to sustain incident operations."
"A 'wobble' in the moon's orbit could result in record flooding in the 2030s, new study finds"
The entire US coastline is in for a one-two punch from the lunar cycle and climate change. Climate change has already increased the frequency and severity of hurricanes and other extreme weather events around the world. — But there's a smaller, less splashy threat on the horizon that could wreak havoc on America's coasts. High-tide floods, also called "nuisance floods," occur in coastal areas when tides reach about 2 feet (0.6 meters) above the daily average high tide and begin to flood onto streets or seep through storm drains. True to their nickname, these floods are more of a nuisance than an outright calamity, inundating streets and homes, forcing businesses to close and causing cesspools to overflow — but the longer they last, the more damage they can do. The U.S. experienced more than 600 of these floods in 2019, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But now, a new study led by NASA warns that nuisance floods will become a much more frequent occurrence in the U.S. as soon as the 2030s, with a majority of the U.S. coastline expected to see three to four times as many high-tide flood days each year for at least a decade.
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